Fachvortrag - Financial Crashes-, Epileptic Seizures-, Earthquake- Prediction - The Parallels

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Markets for stocks and other goods tend to oscillate considerably over time. Anticipation of the development is prone to failure. Prof. Sornette introduced us into the young science of complexity, which studies systems as diverse as the human body, the earth and the universe, offers novel insights on the topic raised in the title. The science of complexity explains large-scale collective behavior, such as well-functioning capitalistic markets, and also predicts that financial crashes and depressions are intrinsic properties resulting from the repeated nonlinear interactions between investors. Applying concepts and methods from complex theory and statistical physics, we have developed mathematical measures to successfully predict the emergence and development of speculative bubbles as well as depressions. Further parallels in financial crashes-, epileptic seizures- and earthquake prediction are explained by the science of complexity.

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